Prop 93

Nobody said this would be easy, no was it guaranteed that there would be a deal. To be honest there are a heck of a lot more reasons for the legislature and Arnold to fail to get a major health care reform package passed than for it to get done. Every day that slips by is reducing the chances of a deal.

There has been a lot agreed to already, but the two sides are still apart on many elements of the plan. Unfortunately politics are getting in the way right now. Chron:

Schwarzenegger and Democratic leaders also face an increasingly tight deadline for passing the bill out of the Legislature in time to gather the required number of signatures to qualify the financial package for the ballot.

The fate of the health care bill is also tied to Proposition 93 - a measure on the Feb. 5 ballot that would extend term limits for some incumbent lawmakers, including Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, D-Los Angeles, and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, D-Oakland, both key supporters of health care reform.

Some political analysts said Tuesday that growing concerns about the economy and the term-limits measure put passage of the health care measure into the long-shot category.

"You have to cut these deals when the iron is hot," said Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist who was chief of staff to former Gov. Gray Davis. "Part of the problem is that everything is left until the last minute. That's not an environment to make significant progress on an issue like health care."

It is not surprising to see South be the naysayer here. He does not have a dog in the hunt, so he dogs everyone.

The calculations around the term limits initiative are the worst sort of politics, self-interest and power rather than good policy. But they should not be ignored. The political climate has markably worsened in the last month. The economy and thus the state's revenues have gone down and the Speaker loses political power based on the weakening polling of Prop 93.

That does not mean that talks have ended. The Speaker is still vowing there will be a vote:

Still, supporters of the overhaul insist an agreement is near. Schwarzenegger said Monday that he continues to be optimistic that a deal can be reached.

Steve Maviglio, spokesman for Núñez, said that talks will continue around the clock and that he believes a vote will be taken before Christmas.

I am still holding out hope, but am not confident that there will be a deal and I am even less confident that such an agreement would be affordable for Californians. We shall see.