New Polling Memo: Analysis of LA Voters overwhelming support for Living Wage

January 26, 2007

To: Brian D'Arcy
Marvin Kropki

FR: Diane Feldman

RE: Living Wage Poll

If a Living Wage Initiative is on the ballot in Los Angeles this spring, it is virtually certain to pass. An initiative that preserves the ordinance passed by the City Council to require airport area hotels to pay service employees at least $9.30 an hour plus contribute at least $1.25 an hour to health care benefits begins with the support of 74 percent of likely voters and the opposition of only 23 percent with just 3 percent undecided. Explication of the specific provisions of the initiative and arguments on both sides of it move the vote only slightly to 69 percent in favor and 27 percent opposed. The strongest argument against the initiative is that its impact is too narrow. Voters prefer that the initiative apply to all low income workers in the city.

These are the results of a survey of 800 likely voters in the City of Los Angeles. Voters were selected by the random cluster method from a file of registered voters who participate in local municipal elections and screened for likely participation in the May 2007 election. The clusters were stratified to insure that the interviews match the anticipated distribution of the vote by party registration, geography and age of voters. Telephone interviewing took place January 18 to January 24. With a sample size of 800, the margin of error is 3.5 percentage points at 95 percent confidence.

Support for the Living Wage initiative is both deep and broad. A 51 percent of voters say they will definitely support it while another 22 percent are probable supporters or lead toward it. In contrast, only 14 percent say they will definitely oppose it.

Support for the initiative cuts across nearly every demographic and political subgroup. By geography, the vote is highest in the South, with 82 percent support, but remains strong in the San Fernando Valley with 68 percent support to 30 percent opposition. The Living Wage Initiative garners the support 66 percent of Anglo voters, 86 percent of African Americans and 89 percent of Latino voters.

Voters in every income category support the initiative. It wins nearly 80 percent support among voters with incomes below $55,000 a year, but also carries 67 percent support with just 30 percent opposition among those with household incomes over $100,000 a year. Registered Democrats support the initiative by 83 to 15 percent and those who decline to state a party preference support the initiative by 75 to 21 percent. Republicans narrowly oppose the initiative, 49 to 46 percent, although a narrow 52 percent majority of Republican women support it.

Voters respond positively to each provision of the initiative except its limitation to airport area workers. Over 70 percent approve of the inclusion of health benefits in the initiative requirements and of the requirement that employers keep proof of health benefit compensation. Over six in ten voters approve of the level of pay specified and twelve paid and ten unpaid sick and vacation days. The weakest aspect of the initiative is that the scope of the living wage initiative is too narrow. Sixty-two (62) percent of voters say they are less likely to support this initiative because it will only apply to LAX-area hotel service employees. After detailing the provisions of the initiative, support holds at 71 percent in favor and 27 percent opposed.

The survey also presented balanced argumentation on both sides of the measure:

• 68 percent of voters believe it is simply wrong that many service workers now take home only three hundred dollars a week;
• 67 percent of voters find persuasive the argument that if hotel workers are not paid a living wage and benefits, taxpayers will be forced to make up the difference in emergency room and social service costs; and
• 63 percent believe the disparity between executive and service worker pay is wrong.

Voters find only one argument against the initiative persuasive. A 65 percent majority believe the current initiative is unfair to other workers in the city and that wages and benefits for all low income workers should increase to the levels of those specified by the initiative, not only those who work at airport area hotels. Other arguments fall short of a majority, including only 31 percent who believe the initiative would cost tourist dollars and jobs.

After argumentation on both sides of the initiative, designed to mimic a competitive campaign, 69 percent of voters say they will vote yes on the initiative while 27 percent will vote no. Between the first vote and the final vote 65 percent of voters remain consistent yes, 5 percent move toward voting yes and just 10 percent move toward voting no, resulting in net movement of just 5 percentage points.

Overall, there is a very low probability that this initiative could fail. Voters support the idea of living wage requirements (85 percent approve of the concept). While the argument the initiative is too narrow results in some movement, both the depth and breadth of initial and final support are a virtual promise the initiative would pass in its current form.