Analysis of California Republican Primary Survey: Issues

To: Working Californians

Date: May 3, 2007

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of 400 likely 2008 Republican primary voters, interviewed by telephone April 9-12, 2007. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

SUMMARY

Our recent statewide poll reveals that while terrorism and the war in Iraq are dominant issues among Republican primary voters in California, they are far from voters’ only concerns. Nearly one third of the state’s GOP primary voters believe that their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, and a substantial block of voters emphasize affordability and quality of life concerns, including protecting Social Security and health care. While the state’s Republican primary voters report hearing a great deal from the candidates about the war in Iraq and terrorism, most say they have heard little if anything from the candidates about other topics important to determining their vote, such as protecting Social Security. The vast majority of the Republican primary electorate supports a larger government role in fixing health care, improving education, and reducing global warming and dependence on foreign oil.

Few Republican Primary Voters Feel They Are Getting Ahead

Voters in California’s Republican primary are not particularly positive about their economic circumstances. Few believe they are getting ahead (16%), while almost one third (31%) of GOP primary voters believe their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living. Half (50%) find themselves merely staying even with the cost of living.

This sentiment is especially strong among working Republicans. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of GOP voters who identify as working or lower class believe that they are falling behind economically, and just 9% believe that their family’s income is rising faster than the cost of living. Women (35%) are more likely than men (27%) to feel that they are falling behind, with economic insecurity particularly acute among women without a college education (40%) and married women (37%). Regardless of gender, non-college educated voters (37%), seniors (35%), and those in union households (36%) are disproportionately likely to believe they are falling behind.

Even among the demographic segments with the most positive outlook about their economic situation, no more than one fifth believe they are getting ahead: just 16% of whites, 16% of college graduates, and 21% of those under 50 years of age think that their family’s income is increasing faster than the cost of living.

Republican pessimism has a national as well as a personal dimension. Less than half (44%) of the state’s GOP primary voters believe the country is moving in the right direction, and they are almost as likely (41%) to feel that things are seriously off track. Here, the pessimism pervades every segment of the Republican primary electorate. Upper/upper-middle class voters are even more likely (45%) than working/lower class Californians (39%) to say the country is seriously off track.

Republican Voters’ Top Concerns Are Terrorism, Iraq, Border Security, and Immigration

While terrorism and border security are of strong concern to the largest proportions of Republican primary voters, they are far from the only issues occupying voters’ attention. Our poll measured the salience of issues in three different ways. First we listed a series of issue categories and asked voters how important each would be when they decide for whom to vote in the Presidential primary. We then asked voters to choose the single most important from a reduced set. Finally, we asked how concerned voters were personally about a variety of problems. Taken together, these three approaches provide a fairly complete portrait of the issues motivating GOP primary voters in California.

Each of these methodologies underlines the centrality of terrorism and the war in Iraq. Forty-five percent (45%) said that protecting the country against terrorism would not be just “very important,” but rather “one of the most important” issues to them when they decide for whom to vote. Another 42% said it would be “very important.” More than 4 in 10 (41%) ranked “dealing with the war in Iraq” as “very important” when deciding their vote. Similarly, at a personal level, 45% said that the fact that “terrorism is a threat to us” is one of the things that worried them most. On this measure, Iraq is less salient but still of significant concern, with nearly one third (30%) stating that the fact that “the war in Iraq is costing us too many lives and too much money” is one of the things worrying them most. Finally, when asked to identify the two most important issues for them when they decided for whom to vote in the Presidential primary, a majority (53%) selected “national security or terrorism,” and 41% chose the war in Iraq.

As important as terrorism and Iraq are, however, they are far from the only issues driving voters’ thinking about the primary. Cost of living issues, particularly Social Security/Medicare and gas prices, as well as immigration, crime, our dependence on foreign oil, cutting government waste, keeping good jobs in the U.S., and health care all loom large in the decision making of Republican primary voters.

Immigration ranks near the top of voters’ minds on both the concerns and importance measures we employed. Nearly 4 in 10 (37%) said that the fact that “illegal immigration is taking jobs, using government services, and endangering our security” was one of the things that concerned them most at a personal level. The same proportion (37%) said that the fact that “our borders and ports are not secure” was one of the most worrisome issues and 35% evinced the most intense level of personal concern about immigrants progress’ (or lack thereof) in learning English. In response to another set of questions, 31% replied that “dealing with illegal immigration” would be one of the most important issues they considered when deciding for whom to vote (with another 47% identifying it as very important).

When asked to identify the two most important voting issues, all told, 21% selected health care, placing it behind only national security/terrorism and Iraq in salience. This issue resonates strongly among voters with no more than a high school education (36%) and is especially salient for unmarried women (38%), among whom it ranks ahead of both Iraq (34%) and national security/terrorism (32%).

In the health care arena, cost, availability, and quality are all of significant concern to voters. Thirty one percent (31%) expressed the most serious level of personal concern about the fact that “too many medical decisions were being made by insurance company bureaucrats, not doctors.” The figure was even higher among women (37%) and young voters with no more than a high school education (40%). Republican primary voters in California, like their Democratic counterparts, worry that insurance companies are still allowing cost considerations to compromise the quality of care they receive. Also very much on the agenda is the affordability and availability of health care. The difficulty for seniors to afford long-term care was a primary personal concern to 28% of voters—roughly the same proportion who expressed the highest degree of concern about health care (29%) and prescription drug costs (29%). Voters who identify as working or lower class (48%), seniors without a college education (46%), women without college (44%), and seniors more generally (41%) were especially likely to rate long-term care accessibility as a top concern. Nearly one quarter (24%) said “making health insurance more available” would be one of their most important voting issues, and 24% said the same about “making health care more affordable.”

Social Security and Medicare also rank as significant issues for California primary voters. Thirty two percent (32%) express deep concern about potential cuts in these benefits, while 28% say protecting Social Security will be one of the most important issues they consider when deciding for whom to vote. The figures are significantly higher for seniors (39% are deeply concerned about cuts and 39% state that protecting Social Security will be one of the most important issues affecting their vote choice) and women (40% deeply concerned/34% most important).

Gasoline prices and jobs round out the most central cost of living issues for Californians. One third (33%) report the most intense level of personal concern about the cost of gasoline, though a lesser 23% identify this as one of their top voting issues. Forty five percent (45%) of those with no more than a high school education express deep concern about gas prices, and over one third (34%) identify it as one of the most important voting issues. Keeping good jobs in the U.S. is in the top third of salient voting issues for GOP primary voters, with 27% saying it is one of their most important issues. This issue is particularly important to voters who identify as working or lower class (36%) and those with no more than a high school education (35%).

Beyond the cost of gasoline, energy issues emerge as salient in another way. Our dependence on Middle-East oil is also of prime concern to California’s Republican primary electorate, with 31% saying it is one of the things worrying them most. Thirty percent (30%) responded that “reducing our dependence on foreign oil” would be one of the most important issues influencing their vote, and 52% identified it as very important.

Notably, social issues are not of significant import to Republican primary voters, compared to terrorism, Iraq, border security, immigration, health care, Social Security, and pocketbook issues. Candidates’ positions on same-sex marriage are one of the most important issues in deciding how to vote for only 12% of voters. Less than one fifth (17%) cite abortion and just 18% identify “protecting second amendment rights to own a gun” as one of the most important issues in choosing their candidate.

The Campaigns Are Addressing Too Little Attention To Almost Every Issue Except Iraq and Terrorism

Beyond determining the issue agenda of Republican primary voters, we sought to assess the degree to which they thought the current campaign dialogue reflected their priorities. To that end, we asked voters how much they had heard the candidates discussing each of these issues. Voters feel they have heard most from the candidates about Iraq, with 56% reporting they have heard “a great deal” about the war from the candidates. Given the importance voters attach to Iraq, this is hardly out of line.

Yet, by that standard, almost every other issue has received at least shorter shrift in the dialogue to which voters have been exposed. This may be a result of the topics candidates choose to address or the stories reporters choose to write, but for one reason or the other, voters are hearing meaningfully less about every other issue on their agenda. For example, cutting wasteful government spending and protecting Social Security rank among voters’ most important issues behind terrorism and Iraq. However, just one fifth (20%) report hearing a great deal about protecting Social Security from the candidates—36 points below Iraq—and just 16% have heard significant discussion about cutting wasteful spending.

Despite its importance to GOP primary voters, only 22% report having heard a great deal from the candidates about making health insurance more affordable, and just 24% have heard significant discussion about making health care more available.

Republican Primary Voters Overwhelmingly Support More Government Action On These Issues

Nearly all (93%) California Republican primary voters agree that that the government should “take aggressive steps to create independence from foreign oil”; almost two thirds (62%) strongly agree with this statement. Likewise, the vast majority (73%) agree that the government “should take a greater role in helping fix our health care crisis,” and 69% of voters support strong government intervention “to reduce carbon pollution that causes global warming.”