Analysis of California Republican Primary Survey: Horserace

To: Working Californians

Date: May 3, 2007

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of 400 likely 2008 Republican primary voters, interviewed by telephone April 9-12, 2007. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

SUMMARY

Our recent statewide poll shows Rudolph Giuliani currently sporting a 15-point lead in the California Republican primary. Despite Giuliani’s lead, however, the race is far from over. His advantage is based importantly, though not completely, on a malleable factor: the belief that he would be the strongest general election candidate. At present, John McCain, a popular second choice candidate, provides the only serious competition. Furthermore, if McCain were no longer running, his supporters would be more likely to move towards Giuliani, while Giuliani supporters are less likely to identify McCain as their second choice. While Giuliani is in a strong position, there is opportunity for other candidates to break through to California Republicans between now and February 5, 2008; the race is very much still up-for-grabs.

Giuliani Is Nearly As Well Known As McCain, And Far Better Liked

Underlying Giuliani’s dominance in the horserace is his popularity among California Republican primary voters: roughly two thirds (67%) view him favorably, whereas only 58% have a positive image of McCain and just one third (34%) view Romney favorably. Giuliani and McCain are both fairly well known (84% ID and 89% ID, respectively), while Romney has much lower name recognition (51% ID) among Republican primary voters in California. Gingrich is well known (81% ID), and his favorables (55%) are similar to those of McCain, suggesting that his entrance into the primary could affect the dynamic of the race, though Gingrich, too, is saddled with relatively high unfavorable ratings.

Giuliani not only has the highest overall favorables, but is also well liked by those who know him; his average favorability rating (a figure which takes into account both the direction and intensity of feeling) is 3.03, so that among those who know him, his average rating is just over “somewhat favorable.” Although Romney is less well known than McCain, he is better liked by those who know him (mean favorability of 2.75, compared to 2.70 for McCain). Neither candidate, however, is as popular as Giuliani among those who know them.

Republican primary voters who feel they are falling behind economically view all of the major candidates less favorably. Giuliani has a positive image among 7 in 10 (70%) of those who feel they are either getting ahead or staying even, but among just 62% of those who feel they are falling behind. Similarly, 61% of those getting ahead and 59% of those staying view McCain favorably, compared to just 53% of those falling behind. The same pattern is apparent for Romney, who is viewed favorably by 40% of those who are staying even or getting ahead, but by only one quarter (25%) of those who are falling behind.

For Now, Giuliani Holds A Strong Lead, With McCain In Second And Romney Trailing

Among California Republican primary voters, Rudolph Giuliani leads with 36% of the vote, followed by John McCain (21%) and Mitt Romney (9%). No other candidate receives more than 4% of the vote, while one fifth (20%) are undecided.

Giuliani’s lead is greater (40%) among those paying very close attention to the primary, while Romney (11%) is actually slightly ahead of McCain (10%) in that attentive segment. Among those paying only somewhat close attention, Giuliani maintains a strong lead with 38% of the vote, while McCain’s support increases to 26%; Romney maintains his third place position at 12%. However, among voters who are not following the election closely, Giuliani’s support declines to 33%, McCain is at 21%, and Romney has just 5% of the vote. Nearly 3 in 10 (29%) voters not paying close attention are undecided.

The race shifts among voters who are familiar with all three top-tier candidates. Among these voters, Giuliani’s support holds steady at 36%, while McCain’s total drops to 15% and Romney’s support jumps to second place with 17%; just 14% of these most knowledgeable voters are undecided. This suggests that part of Senator McCain’s support is based on his higher name recognition, an advantage that could disappear as primary day approaches.

Like Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, Giuliani runs strongest among the least economically advantaged of California’s Republican primary voters. Among those who believe that they are falling behind the cost of living, over 4 in 10 (41%) support Giuliani—more than double the percentage supporting McCain (19%). Only 6% of those falling behind are Romney voters. Nearly one quarter (24%) of those falling behind have not yet decided which Republican candidate they prefer. Voters who feel they are just keeping even with the cost of living favor Giuliani (34%) over McCain (21%) and Romney (12%). Among GOP primary voters who believe they are getting ahead, McCain and Romney are relatively successful (23% and 13%, respectively), but even among this group Giuliani (37%) leads by a significant margin.

Likewise, while Giuliani maintains his lead and McCain stays in second place across socioeconomic categories, Giuliani runs stronger among lower/working class voters (39%) and especially non-college educated middle class voters (46%) than among college-educated middle class voters (33%) or upper/upper-middle class voters (32%). By contrast, both McCain (19%) and Romney (4%) are least successful among lower/working class voters. Romney gains some ground among upper/upper-middle class voters, garnering 16% of their vote—close to McCain’s 20%.

Giuliani’s support weakens as voters’ education increases: he has 43% of the vote among those without any college education, 40% among those with some college, and just one third (33%) of the college graduate vote. The same is true for McCain, who has the support of nearly 3 in 10 (29%) voters with no college education, one fifth (20%) of those with some college, and 18% of college graduates. Interestingly, voters with no more than a high school education are least likely to be undecided (13%) at this point, and college graduates (22%) are most undecided. Among college educated men, Romney (16%) nearly pulls even with McCain (17%) for second behind Giuliani (36%).

Giuliani does significantly better among younger voters (42%) than among those over 50 years of age (34%). The reverse is true for McCain, who has the support of only 13% of younger voters but more than one quarter (26%) of those above 50. Similarly, Romney runs stronger among voters over 50 (12%) than among younger voters (5%). However, while McCain narrows the gap among older voters, Giuliani maintains a significant lead even among this group, and Romney remains far behind. Giuliani runs particularly strong among younger men (45%); no other candidate reaches 10% of the vote among this group. Among men over 50, Giuliani still leads (32%), but McCain is not far behind (26%), and Romney is in double digits at 12%.

Iraq and national security issues are strengths for Giuliani in California. He is most successful among voters who find national security or terrorism (42%) and the war in Iraq (41%) particularly salient. McCain, by contrast, loses support among these voters (18% and 20%, respectively). Among those who rank education as most important, McCain (30%) does nearly as well as Giuliani (34%). GOP primary voters who ascribe high importance to healthcare support both Giuliani (37%) and McCain (23%) in large numbers, though Romney gets little lift from his signature Massachusetts accomplishment (9%).

Republican Primary Voters Now Believe Giuliani Has The Best Chance To Win The General

Part of Giuliani’s current advantage stems from the perception that he would be the strongest candidate in November. Nearly half (47%) of GOP primary voters believe that Giuliani has the best chance of capturing the Presidency, while 18% see McCain as the strongest. Only 4% feel Romney has the best chance of victory in November. More than 8 in 10 (81%) of Giuliani’s own supporters believe he is strongest whereas 62% of McCain supporters believe their candidate has the best chance of a general election win.

Giuliani And McCain Are Equally Popular Second Choice Candidates

Giuliani (22%) and McCain (20%) each are favored by roughly one fifth of the electorate as a second choice candidate, suggesting that either one has the ability to pick up votes if the other falters. Romney is the second choice candidate of less than one tenth (9%) of the GOP primary electorate, while more than a quarter (28%) would be undecided if their first choice were not running.

McCain’s supporters are more likely to move towards Giuliani than vice versa. Almost half (48%) of McCain voters would support Giuliani if their candidate were no longer in the race, while 34% of Giuliani supporters would throw their support to McCain. Nearly 4 in 10 (37%) of McCain voters and 29% of Giuliani voters would be undecided if their candidate were not running. All this suggests that the race is far from settled.