Analysis of CA Primary Voters Survey: Issues

To: Working Californians

Date: April 25, 2006

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of 400 likely 2008 Democratic primary voters, interviewed by telephone April 9-12, 2006. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

SUMMARY

Our just completed statewide poll reveals that while the war in Iraq is a dominant issue among Democratic primary voters in California, it is far from their only concern. Nearly half of Democratic primary voters in California believe that their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, and emphasize affordability and quality of life concerns, including health care, the environment, and education. While the state’s Democratic primary voters report hearing a great deal from the candidates about the war in Iraq and terrorism, most say they have heard little if anything from the candidates about other topics that are important to determining their vote, including jobs, education, and the environment. There is overwhelming support within the Democratic primary electorate for a larger government role in fixing health care, improving education, and reducing global warming and dependence on foreign oil. Democratic primary voters also believe unions can play a large role in improving the quality of life in America.

Democratic Primary Voters Feel They Are Falling Behind Economically

For Californians, concern about economic issues and the cost of living emerges from a strong sense that they are falling behind. Almost half (49%) of California Democratic primary voters believe their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, while another 35% think they are merely staying even with the cost of living. Only 14% think that they are getting ahead.

This sentiment is particularly strong among working Californians. A whopping 60% of voters with high school educations or less believe they are falling behind economically, as do nearly two thirds (65%) of those who identify as working or lower class and 49% of non-college educated, middle class voters. Similarly, a majority (52%) of Democratic primary voters in union households think they are falling behind, and just 11% believe that their family’s income is rising faster than the cost of living.

Even within the demographic segments most sanguine about their circumstances, less than one fifth have a positive outlook: just 17% of college graduates, 16% of those under 50 years of age, and 16% of whites think that their family’s income is increasing faster than the cost of living.

Californians’ pessimism is not just personal; it is national in scope. Over three quarters (78%) of Democratic primary voters believe the country is seriously off track, while just 13% believe the country is moving in the right direction. Here the pessimism pervades every segment of the primary electorate. Upper/upper-middle class voters say the country is seriously off track by 82% to 8%, a view shared by 81% of working/lower class Californians.

Democratic Voters’ Top Concerns Are The War In Iraq, Health Care, The Environment, And Education

While Iraq is the single biggest concern of the largest number of Democratic primary voters, the war is far from the only issue occupying their attention. Our poll measured the salience of issues in three different ways. First we listed a series of issue categories and asked voters how important each would be when they decide for whom to vote in the Presidential primary. We then asked voters to choose the single most important from a reduced set. Finally, we asked how concerned voters were personally about a variety of problems. Taken together, these three approaches provide a fairly complete portrait of the issues motivating Democratic primary voters in California.

Each of these methodologies underlines the centrality of Iraq. Forty-five percent (45%) said Iraq would not be just “very important,” but rather “one of the most important” issues to them when they decide for whom to vote. Another 37% said it would be “very important.” Similarly, at a personal level, 61% said that the fact that “the war in Iraq is costing us too many lives and too much money” was one of the things that worried them most. Finally, when asked to identify the two most important issues for them when they decided for whom to vote in the Presidential primary, 50% selected the war.

As important as the war is, however, it is far from the only issue driving voters’ thinking about the primary. Cost of living issues, particularly the cost of healthcare, Social Security/Medicare and gas prices, as well as global warming and our dependence on foreign oil, all loom large in the decision making of Democratic primary voters.

The affordability of health care ranks second only to Iraq across each of the measures of issue salience we employed. Nearly half (46%) responded that the cost of health care was one of the things that concerned them most at a personal level. At the same time, 39% of all voters evinced the most intense level of personal concern about the cost of prescription drugs specifically, while 35% expressed that kind of concern about the affordability of long-term care.

In response to another set of questions, 40% replied that “making health care more affordable” would be one of the most important issues they considered when deciding for whom to vote (with another 50% identifying it as very important). Indeed, if one examines the average response, as opposed to just the most intense, health care costs (4.29 on a 1-5 scale) actually outranks even “dealing with the war in Iraq” (4.18) as a voting issue for California Democrats.

When asked to identify the two most important voting issues, all told, 37% selected healthcare, putting it once again second to Iraq in salience. This issue resonates strongly among voters with no more than a high school education (44%) and especially those over 60 years of age (50%), among whom it ranks ahead of Iraq (48%).

While cost emerged as the primary axis of concern in the healthcare arena, availability and quality were not far behind. Forty one percent (41%) expressed the most serious level of personal concern about the fact that “too many medical decisions were being made by insurance company bureaucrats, not doctors.” California Democrats worry that insurance companies are still allowing cost considerations to compromise the quality of care they receive. Also very much on the agenda is the availability of healthcare. Too many people not having health insurance was a primary personal concern to 38%, while 34% said “making health insurance more available” would be one of their most important voting issues.

Social Security and Medicare also rank as significant issues for California primary voters. Forty- two percent (42%) express deep concern about potential cuts in these benefits, while 34% say protecting Social Security will be one of the most important issues they consider when deciding for whom to vote. The figures are significantly higher for seniors, 47% of whom are deeply concerned about Social Security and Medicare cuts, while 46% state that protecting Social Security will be one of the most important issues affecting their vote choice.

Gasoline prices round out the most central cost of living issues for Californians. Forty percent (40%) report the most intense level of personal concern about the cost of gasoline, though a lesser 26% identify this as one of their top voting issues.

Beyond the cost of gasoline, energy issues emerge as salient in two additional ways. First, primary voters express substantial personal concern about global warming, with 45% identifying it as one of the issues that worried them most and 32% ranking it as one of the most important issues in deciding who to support in the primary. Our dependence on Middle-East oil is also of prime concern to California’s Democratic primary electorate, with 39% saying it is one the things that worries them most and 36% reporting it will be a prime voting issue.

Finally, education emerges as a central voting issue in the Presidential primary. Though it ranks a bit lower on voters’ list of personal concerns (33% one of the most important), 32% say that improving education will be “one of the most important issues” for them in deciding how to vote, placing it just below the war in Iraq and healthcare. Similarly, 27% cite education as one of the two most important voting issues, again placing it just after the war and healthcare.

Notably, immigration is not of significant import to Democratic primary voters, compared to Iraq, healthcare, the environment, education, and other pocketbook issues. Candidates’ positions on “dealing with illegal immigration” are one of the most important issues in deciding how to vote for only 25% of voters. Less than a quarter (24%) cite “too many immigrants are not learning English” and just 28% identify “illegal immigration is taking our jobs, using our government services, and endangering our security” as one of their most important personal concerns.

The Campaigns Are Addressing Too Little Attention To Almost Every Issue Except Iraq

Beyond determining the issue agenda of California Democratic primary voters, we sought to assess the degree to which they thought the current campaign dialogue reflected their priorities. To that end we asked voters how much they had heard the candidates discussing each of these issues. Voters feel they have heard most from the candidates about Iraq, with 62% reporting they have heard “a great deal” about the war from the candidates. Given the importance voters attach to Iraq, this is hardly out of line.