Fineman and Arnold's Role in the Presidential Election

Why did Arnold pass up an opportunity to speak at the beginning of the Republican Presidential Debate last week? It puzzles me. The team behind Arnold carefully calculates these types of appearances and this goes against Arnold's spotlight loving nature. What was the reasoning. I know one thing, Howard Fineman is way off with today's column. He suggest that Arnold, Al Gore and Michael Bloomberg may be preparing a "third force" push for the presidency. This is just silly talk:

If I were a GOP strategist – or a Democratic one – I would be worried by Arnold’s body language. He and other major independent actors on the political scene – New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Al Gore, chief among them – comprise a Third Force that could upset two-party politics as we know it in the 2008 presidential race.

Indeed, although there is no formal alliance, Schwarzenegger, Bloomberg and Gore have formed a mutual admiration society that has huge potential implications for 2008. They have come to share similar visions on the urgency of the global warming and health care crises, and a similar impatience with politics as usual.

This could be the year of the Third Force.

First of all, Arnold cannot run, something Fineman saves to gloss over at the end. Al Gore has moved to the left, at least in terms of public perception and is not where he was in 2000. Bloomberg has said publicly that he is not interested in running and now the tabloid rags in NY have moved on to rumor-mongering about a gubernatorial run in 2010 against Spitzer.

I know guys like Fineman wish a third party movement like Unity 08 would catch on, but there is absolutely no indication that they are gaining any traction. Furthermore, Democratic voters are generally happy with the quality of candidates that they have running. It was not all that long ago when liberal Democrats were wishing that Al Gore would make a late entry, saving everyone from Hillary Clinton as a nominee. Since then Obama has appeared on the scene and proven to be a strong candidate, raking in the cash and pulling in the crowds. Edwards appears to be an even stronger candidate than in 2004. Richardson continues to pick up traction, hoping to make the leap into the top tier. There is a small opening for a "male Hillary Clinton" type candidate, but it is a small one. The Republican opening is to the right and something Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich might fill.

Jonathan Stein over at Mother Jones does a good job into Fineman's main set of reasoning (h/t to Salladay)

In fact, this whole "Independents in '08!" thing feels a little like a media creation -- something political journalists daydream about when bored of covering the same six frontrunners for... well, how long is the campaign season now? Two full years? It has a sideshow feel to it -- I should have conveyed that better in my post about Hagel and Bloomberg.

Witness, for example, Fineman's reasoning for why an independent candidate could win this year when such candidates have failed in every other year. The early primary schedule means that the winner of each party's nominations could be identified by early February of 2008, seven months before the parties' conventions. In those seven months, speculates Fineman, buyer's remorse will set in for some members of both parties and they will go looking for someone else to support.

Okay, I guess, except no committed Republican or Democrat treats party identification that trivially, and the independent voters won't have made up their minds that early, meaning buyer's remorse won't have time to set in. Besides, the GOP and the Dems probably realize there is too much time between the deciding primaries and their conventions and will likely move the convention dates up. Problem solved.

It will indeed be a very long general election campaign. Nobody has a very good feel of how that will play out. One thing is for sure, the long length makes it extraordinarily unlikely that each party's nominee will stick to the limited public financing funds.

Voters have already moved on from the Bush presidency. The general election race will serve as another seemingly welcome distraction.

Back to Fineman's three... The common ground between Gore, Schwarzenegger and Bloomberg seems to be on the environment, but it is not like the Democrats need any prodding on that subject. Candidates will seek out their endorsements on an individual basis. You saw plenty of sucking up by the Republicans to Arnold last week, something that is sure to have tickled him pink.

Arnold wants to play a role in this election. He has already talked about hopping on that private jet to give speeches around the country. The media loves to cover him and it is likely he could impact the race, though he may effect the Republicans the most. It simply does not make sense for him to endorse early and I expect him to draw out the process to garner the most attention. The candidates will oblige, for at the very least it will make news any time they meet with him. Expect his theme to be about Democrats and Republicans working together to solve big problems like the environment. It plays very well in the press.