WC's Republican Poll on Issues

The second half of the polling we released today is was designed to determine the dominant issues among Republican primary voters in California. We wanted to take the temperature of likely voters on Feburary 5th and see if they felt the Republican candidates were speaking to those issues. Mellman produced this polling memo analyzing the data.

Our recent statewide poll reveals that while terrorism and the war in Iraq are dominant issues among Republican primary voters in California, they are far from voters’ only concerns. Nearly one third of the state’s GOP primary voters believe that their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, and a substantial block of voters emphasize affordability and quality of life concerns, including protecting Social Security and health care. While the state’s Republican primary voters report hearing a great deal from the candidates about the war in Iraq and terrorism, most say they have heard little if anything from the candidates about other topics important to determining their vote, such as protecting Social Security. The vast majority of the Republican primary electorate supports a larger government role in fixing health care, improving education, and reducing global warming and dependence on foreign oil.

This sentiment is especially strong among working Republicans. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of GOP voters who identify as working or lower class believe that they are falling behind economically, and just 9% believe that their family’s income is rising faster than the cost of living. Women (35%) are more likely than men (27%) to feel that they are falling behind, with economic insecurity particularly acute among women without a college education (40%) and married women (37%). Regardless of gender, non-college educated voters (37%), seniors (35%), and those in union households (36%) are disproportionately likely to believe they are falling behind.

Republican voters' top concerns are terrorism, Iraq, border security and immigration. However, they are far from the only issues occupying voters' attention.

Cost of living issues, particularly Social Security/Medicare and gas prices, as well as immigration, crime, our dependence on foreign oil, cutting government waste, keeping good jobs in the U.S., and health care all loom large in the decision making of Republican primary voters.

Voters emphasize the importance of candidates positions on terrorism, the war, illegal immigration and energy independence. Health care is up there too.

When asked to identify the two most important voting issues, all told, 21% selected health care, placing it behind only national security/terrorism and Iraq in salience. This issue resonates strongly among voters with no more than a high school education (36%) and is especially salient for unmarried women (38%), among whom it ranks ahead of both Iraq (34%) and national security/terrorism (32%).

Notably, social issues are missing from the list of those considered of "significant import" to Republican primary voters. Same sex marriage is at 12%, 17% cite abortion and just 18% identify "protecting second amendment rights to own a gun" as on of the most important issues in choosing their candidate.

Poll respondents said that the campaigns are addressing too little attention to almost every issue except Iraq and Terrorism.

Crime, wasteful spending, corruption and taxes are highly important to voters decisions but are considered underdiscussed. Republican primary voters want the government to reduce dependence on foreign oil and take aggressive steps to fix health care and global warming.

Go take a look at the full polling report from Mellman. Give us a few more days and we will have the Republican candidates up on Choices.